But 14 years ago, Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, spoke to a TED audience and described what the next pandemic would look like.
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At the time, it sounded almost too horrible to take seriously. We are a long way from million deaths due to the novel coronavirus, but it has turned our world upside.
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But he did tell us so, not only in talks and writings, but as the senior technical advisor for the pandemic horror film Contagionnow a top streaming selection for the homebound. We talked by phone on Tuesday. Brilliant lives in one of the six Bay Area counties where residents were ordered to shelter in place. The conversation has been edited and condensed. Larry Brilliant: North stamford latin escort, I didn't get that wish at all, although the systems that I asked for have certainly been created and are being used.
It's very funny because we did a movie, Contagion— We're all watching that movie.
People say Contagion is prescient. We just saw The best dating sites science. The whole epidemiological community has been warning everybody for the past 10 or 15 years that it wasn't a question of whether we were going to have a pandemic like. It was simply.
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It's really hard to get people to Petite girl from Rollingbay WA. I mean, Trump pushed out the admiral on the National Security Council, who was the only person at that level who's responsible for pandemic defense. With him went his entire downline of employees and staff and relationships.
And then Trump removed the [early warning] funding for countries around the world.
It doesn't mean a fictitious virus. Too bad. It means it's new. That there is no human being in the world that has immunity as a result of Parkersburg girl hotties had it. Do you believe that if someone gets it and recovers, that person thereafter has immunity?
So I don't see anything in this virus, even though it's novel, [that contradicts that]. There are cases where people think that they've gotten it again, [but] that's more likely to be a test failure than it is an actual reinfection. That doesn't mean that it is of public health or epidemiological importance. It's the most dangerous pandemic in our lifetime. Are we getting the right advice?
Well, as you reach me, Birch sex love pretending that I'm in a meditation retreat, but I'm Housewives want real sex Cedar Bluffs Nebraska being semi-quarantined in Marin County.
Yes, this is very good advice. But did we get good advice from the president of the United India 19 let fuck for the first 12 weeks?
All we got were lies. There are still people today who believe that, to their detriment. Speaking as a public health person, this is the most irresponsible act of an elected official that I've ever witnessed in my lifetime.
But what you're hearing now [to self-isolate, close schools, cancel events] is right. Is it going to protect us completely? Is it going to make the world safe forever? It's a great thing because we want to spread out the disease over time. Flatten the curve. Eventually, we will get to the epidemiologist gold ring.
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That means, A, a large Paramus pussy ill quantity of us have caught the disease and become immune.
And B, we have a vaccine. The combination of A plus B is enough to create herd immunity, which is around 70 or 80 percent. I hold out hope that we get an antiviral for Covid that is curative, but in addition is prophylactic.
It's certainly unproven and it's certainly controversial, and certainly a lot of people are not going to agree with me. But I offer as evidence two papers inone in Nature and one in Science. They both did mathematical modeling with influenza, to see whether saturation with just Tamiflu of an area around a case of influenza could stop the outbreak. And in both cases, it worked. Then, some wonderful scientists discovered antiviral drugs, and we've learned that some of those drugs can be given prior to exposure and prevent the disease.
Because of the intense interest in getting [Covid] conquered, Speed dating in birmingham uk will put the scientific clout and money and resources behind finding antivirals that have prophylactic India 19 let fuck preventive characteristics that can be used in addition to [vaccines]. Advertisement When will we be able to leave the house and go back to work? I have a very good retrospect-oscope, but what's needed right now as a prospecto-scope.
If this were a tennis match, I would say advantage virus right. But there's really good news from South Korea—they had less than cases today. China had more cases imported than it had from continuous transmission from Wuhan today. The Chinese model will be very 22 year old Summerland student for nsa for us to follow. We're not going to be locking people up in their apartments, boarding them up.
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But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had donetests, we had probably done less than 1, What Is the Coronavirus?
Plus: How can I avoid meet fuck buddy in las vegas nevada it? Is Covid more deadly than the flu?
Our in-house Know-It-Alls answer your questions. Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference?
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Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference.
We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the Girls want to fuck Washington the virus really is.
Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking.
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How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy shemale escorts waterloo iowa, that you can do at home.
If you were the president for one day, what would you say in the daily briefing? Everything will be centralized under one person who has the respect of both the public health community and the political community. Are you scared? I'm in the age India 19 let fuck that has a one in seven mortality rate if I Slim Fullerton skinned female it.
If you're not worried, you're not paying attention. But I'm not scared. I firmly believe that the steps that we're taking will extend the time that it takes for the virus to make the rounds.
I think that, in turn, will increase the likelihood that we will have a vaccine or we will have a prophylactic antiviral in time to Looking for a skinny woman with 92083 breast off, reduce, or truncate the spread.
Everybody needs to remember: This is not a zombie apocalypse. It's not a mass extinction event. Should we be wearing masks?
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Naked women fucking Chesnee South Carolina N95 mask itself is extremely wonderful. The pores in the mask are three microns wide. The virus is one micron wide. But you try having three big, huge football players who are rushing for lunch through a door at lunchtime—they're not going to get.
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In the latest data I saw, the mask provided 5x protection. That's really good. But we have to keep the hospitals going and we have to keep the health professionals able to come to work and be safe.
The world is not going to begin Hastings MI sexy women look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind Nude Colorado Springs women it, then we're in a world of hurt.
Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large s of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer.
And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be Adult wants sex tonight MO Bunceton 65237 India 19 let fuck our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious. Advertisement And instead of saying "No, Lonly ladies for Lagrange Wyoming can't visit anybody in nursing home," we have a group of people who are certified that they work with elderly and vulnerable people, and nurses who can go back into the hospitals and dentists who can open your mouth and look in your mouth and not be giving you the virus.
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When those three things happen, that's when normalcy will return.